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House price outlook weak – NAB

The September quarter survey conducted by National Australia Bank (NAB) found expected annual price rises averaged just 1.5 per cent.

That’s the same as in the June quarter survey, but well down from the 6.0 per cent average rise expected in the March quarter survey, the first in the new series.

Canberra was expected to post the strongest rise of 5.0 per cent, while Brisbane was at the back of the pack, with an anticipated increase of only 0.1 per cent.

Elsewhere, expected rises were 3.3 per cent in Adelaide, 2.7 per cent in Sydney, 1.6 per cent in Perth and 1.3 per cent in Melbourne.

The survey found properties selling for less than $500,000 were expected to post the biggest price gains, while the those going for more than $2,000,000 were expected to rise by the least.

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Foreign buyers were expected to account for five per cent of existing property sales and seven per cent of purchases of new developments, down from nine per cent in both categories in the June quarter.

For existing residential properties, access to credit and rising interest rates were about equal at the top of the list of constraints on demand, although the existing level of prices and uncertainty about employment security were also seen as significant.

For new developments, tight credit was the most important constraint, but rising interest rates and housing affordability were also significant constraints.

Even so, the survey found residential property was the strongest-performing category, classed as “good”.

All other property categories were seen as only “fair”, with infrastructure and offices the best of the rest, and hotels, retail and industrial property the weakest.

The survey also found residential rents were expected to rise by “around 2.5 per cent” over the coming year on average across Australia.

Tighter rental markets in Sydney and Melbourne meant rent rises were expected to be larger in NSW and Victoria, at 3.3 per cent in both states.

In Western Australia and Queensland, rises were expected to be weaker, at 1.4 per cent in WA and and 1.7 per cent in Queensland.

The survey respondents represent a range of players in the commercial and residential real estate market – real estate agents and managers (48 per cent), property developers (18 per cent), owners and investors (15 per cent), asset and fund managers (12 per cent) and valuers (7 per cent).